The period of drought causes uncertainty about energy

Risk of blackout and water lack discloses effects of environmental crisis and planning crisis

Inflation is not the main concern. What passes through the head of most Brazilian people every morning is: where is the rain? In São Paulo, the dramatic reduction of water levels in the Cantareira system and other reservoirs put the water supply of the metropolitan region of São Paulo in the center of attentions, compelling the population to eventually face water economy as a continuous concern of everyone. In national level, the lack of rain hits directly the capacity of power generation and ultimately creates the risk of a large-scale blackout similar to the blackout that occurred in 2001. This is already happening punctually in some regions and cities.

Projections carried out by the National Operator of Power System (ONS) for rain increase in November suggest that the water level of the Southeastern/ Center-western subsystem—the most important of the country—will remain in levels below those of 2001, the year of rationing. Data show that in October of that year—during the reduction of power supply—reservoirs reached 21.3 percent of their capacity at the end of the month, according to a survey carried out by Comerc Energia. The reservoirs of the Southeastern/ Center-western Region correspond to 70 percent of the total storage capacity of the country.

The second most important region is the Northeastern, with approximately 12 percent of the total capacity. According to official projections of the ONS, the level of power plant reservoirs reached 15.5 percent at the end of November. And the rain in the Southeast will reach 74 percent of the historical average in December. Still according to the Monthly Operating Program (PMO), the power consumption in Brazil will be increased in 2.6 percent in November, if compared to a year before.

For the Northeast, the expectation of the OMS is that power plant reservoirs of the region will reach a level of 11.4 percent at the end of December and that the rains reach 36 percent of the historical average for the period. Currently, the level of northeastern power plant reservoirs is 15.88 percent and that of southeastern power plants is 18.85 percent. In the Southeastern region this level is lower than that recorded in October, 2000, just before rationing. For this reason, experts of the area are warning that the risk of rationing in 2015 is high if rains are not close to the historical levels during the wet period.

Sustainable consumption

These conditions impose to face the situation and to adopt solutions that could increase the reservation capacity of the country, mainly in critical moments. From 2001 on, a system of power generating based on thermoelectric plants was installed to attend the country in emergencies. But such system—in addition of its emission problems—has adverse effects on public accounts due to its high cost.

During last years, the option was to build hydroelectric plants without large reservoirs, as it is occurring in Jirau, Santo Antonio and mainly Belo Monte. This was one of the ways found to reduce the environmental impact caused by flooding large areas. But what has to be discussed from now on is the other side of the coin: the situation of risk in power generation due to the volume reduction of plant reservoirs, as president Dilma mentioned some times.

Brazil has the largest stock of fresh water of the planet, corresponding to 12 percent of the total. This turns the water of rivers and lakes of the country into one of its highest riches. Till these days, only one third of the Brazilian hydroelectric potential—estimated in 246 GW—was used for generation purposes. The remaining two thirds are located mostly in the Amazon, where also are located most of Brazilian protected areas.

In a document issued last year, the Brazilian Committee of Dams (CBDB) was already drawing the attention for the lowering of water levels in these reservoirs and to its effect on the safety of country’s power generation. Among other questions listed by the committee, there are environmental issues and legal environmental demands carried out in the last decades, which caused a gradual reduction in the area of new artificial reservoirs during the last two decades, “what reduces significantly the volume of water storage for multiple uses”.

According to the entity, the reduction in the volume of artificial reservoirs has among its main consequences the lower use of the productive capacity of electric power generation in the country. This demands a more and more high use of the complementary thermal power generating plants to balance the lack of power supply during the dry periods, charging costs and causing environmental impacts that are difficult to be reduced ant that also contribute for the effects of climate changes that concern the whole planet.

The entity also pointed out that—if the legal restrictions listed above were maintained—this situation of power lack tends to worsen till 2050, considering that Brazil would have an increase of its population and of family income that would result in an increase of per capita consumption and in a resulting pressure on the global demand for power in the country.

According to the entity—since the Brazilian electric generation matrix is mostly hydroelectric, complemented by thermal units—if a deficit in power supply occurs, the use of thermal units will undoubtedly increase, since the other sustainable sources such as wind and photovoltaic are considered a complement of the interconnected system.

The document emphasizes how serious will be the consequences for the environment If the thermal park assumes a larger participation in the country’s supply of power, overcoming that of the hydroelectric plants. Environmental damages caused by these plants were proven to be reversible or reduced to tolerable levels, in addition to the fact that the construction of most plants caused an improvement of conditions to the populations of their neighborhood. The committee recommends—starting from these findings—some routes that together may show a way in medium and long terms.

The first recommendation is that the hydroelectric inventories already carried out were revaluated considering the importance of flow-regulating reservoirs, to increase the safety in attending the needs of national development.

The second recommendation is that Brazilian authorities could carry out a large national discussion about the management of country’s water resources. This discussion would involve all parts interested, from public areas and from civil society, in a way to prevent the underutilization of national water potential, mainly for power generation.

And the third recommendation is that—based on the results of these discussions—the related acts would be adjusted in a way to make effective the changes that would be needed. And finally, that the changes to be carried out in the acts take also into account the necessity that environmental studies have to be started together with the integrated planning of the hydroelectric projects to be developed.